Blog 15th March 2020 - COVID-19 COVID-19... now officially a pandemic provides much to think about doesn’t it? The R0 appears to be around 2.28 estimated by bootstrap resampling of data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The estimate has limits from 2.06 to 2.52, but even at the lower limit, there is more than enough scope to tell me there will be strong spread characteristics unless tenacious infection management and control can be taken and enforced, more or less an oxymoron in a first world democracy. The mortality rate (MR) is also rather hard to pin down, partially because it depends on where the sampling is done. Recent time delay adjusted estimates reported in the Lancet suggest that the MR may be as high as 20% in Wuhan – at the epicentre of the outbreak. Current official figures quoting an MR as low as 3 to 5% may therefore underestimate the likely figure. We’re all going to find out the hard way. General estimates suggest an infection rate between 40 and 75% of the population. Statistically speaking those of us above 60 will be in the hardest hit group... but even the 50 to 65 year olds will face a tough battle... and off course they will find themselves fighting for extremely limited health care resources by the time the bulk of the population get hit. The one thing in our favour is that even worst case, around 80% of the population (and it may be higher) will walk away scot free after a bad hair day, a fever and feeling a bit rubbish. I hope it isn’t quite as grim a prospect for the other 20% that I fear it might be. Way back in 2012 there was a fuel crisis in the UK. I happened to be on holiday in Cumbria in the middle of a two week break with half a tank of fuel in the car when the first reports came in of a refinery blockade. Within half a day, every local fuel station was empty. Within 3 days, every fuel station within 100 miles was dry and all the local convenience shops had been stripped bare of bread and milk. I didn’t use the car at all during that second week and more or less hunkered down in the cottage. I only just made it home, running on fumes. I was quite naive at the time, because I had no idea just how fast a series of headlines could influence behaviour to the point where a huge 3 day supply line would effectively collapse, even without taking into account the blockade itself. It is a little like a bank capable of handling any number of requests, but which will happily collapse in a day if there is a run. Then there are the knock on consequences to this type of failure... in this case the fuel blockade meant that supermarkets couldn’t transport food and so as the shops emptied there was no way to replenish stocks. Within a week, shops everywhere were bare. Ambulances, police and fire services found themselves having to demand fuel stocks from the army and all the time it took a good week before government finally figured out they needed to organise alternatives (involving the army stationed at the refineries). Hunkered down, I watched all this on TV as my end date loomed safely tucked up in a beautiful cottage in the Lake District (thanks Scale Hill) and made a mental note never to get caught out in the same way again. I’m not a prepper in the sense of wearing camo and making fire by rubbing sticks, but I did immediately start a long term detailed planning exercise to obtain the necessary skills to independently source food and at the same time to build a personal emergency supply providing sufficient resource for around six weeks behind closed doors even if we found ourselves without running water or electricity. That involves a series of dissimilar skills – for example understanding nutrition intake requirements while at the same time being able to create simple cooking solutions for food from a variety of sources... beyond tins. As I look at the Italian experience and the runs on the supermarkets in the UK I realise the wisdom of such planning and can’t help feeling vindicated given the number of times I've doubted myself. Proper planning prevents p??s poor performance, is an adage that applies rather well in this case. Good luck everyone. Comment | Back to Quick Links...